Hikvision Investment Quality Review (002415.SZ)
Data timestamp: 2026-07-24 22:04 UTC
Quality score: 81/100
Valuation position: current price/base fair value (FV) 0.98
Final signal: WATCHLIST
Core Conclusion
Hikvision is an excellent-quality WATCHLIST name. Base FV is close to the current price, but conservative FV does not provide enough downside protection.
- Quality: 81/100, supported by scale, cash flow, and net cash.
- Price: current price is CNY35.49 and market value is about CNY325.26 billion. Conservative/base FV is CNY24.48/CNY36.38 per share.
Business Breakdown
Main-business revenue moved from CNY81.42 billion in 2021 to CNY92.51 billion in 2025, a 3.2% CAGR. Segment margin/profit was not disclosed. Latest annual FCF and five-year cash conversion support quality, but growth is not enough to upgrade the signal at the current price.
Quality Gate
The score is 81/100. Five-year average FCF/Net Income was 0.84 and OCF/Net Income was 1.12. The latest net cash/debt was CNY38.36 billion. The report keeps governance, related-party, incentive, and financial-asset composition checks in the follow-up list.
Financial Audit
The valuation uses fiscal 2025-2021 in CNY. Latest balance-sheet inputs were CNY46.51 billion cash, CNY1.26 billion current financial assets, CNY0.59 billion non-current financial assets, and CNY8.14 billion debt.
Valuation
CNY 10Y government yield was 1.7% from ChinaBond on 2026-07-24.
| Scenario | Core Assumption | Multiple Basis | Fair Market Value | FV/Share | Price/FV | Weight | Next Check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | Normalized FCF CNY21.72bn with heavier haircut | g 1.6%, 8.7x | CNY224.39bn | CNY24.48 | 1.45 | 30% | FCF durability |
| Base | Five-year FCF and current state continue | g 3.2%, 13.8x | CNY333.39bn | CNY36.38 | 0.98 | 50% | Revenue and ROIC trend |
| Optimistic | Quality rerating without exceeding cap | g 4.7%, 19.9x | CNY467.47bn | CNY51.01 | 0.70 | 20% | Competition and capital allocation |
Balance-sheet bridge is CNY34.74 billion after cash, financial assets, and debt haircuts. Price/base FV of 0.98 is not a 2x signal.
Buy And Monitor
Current action is watch. Upgrade needs price/base FV below 0.70, quality score at least 75, and stronger mispricing evidence. Track revenue, FCF/Net Income, ROIC, net cash/debt, dividends, buybacks, and governance disclosures.
Risks
The main risks are FCF durability, technology cycle pressure, regulatory/export constraints, financial-asset haircuts, and governance/accounting items. Two periods below 0.60 FCF/Net Income, net-debt expansion, asset impairment, or dilutive shareholder returns would lower FV and signal.
Research only. Not personalized investment advice.
Sources
Public quote and financial platforms supplied market and five-year baseline data. Official disclosure venues or company IR remain required for annual reports, governance, dividends, buybacks, related-party, incentive, and risk evidence. Risk-free rate: ChinaBond, 2026-07-24.