CATL Investment Quality Review (300750.SZ)
Data timestamp: 2026-07-24 22:04 UTC
Quality score: 76/100
Valuation position: current price/base fair value (FV) 1.70
Final signal: WATCHLIST
Core Conclusion
CATL is a WATCHLIST name. The company has strong scale and cash-flow evidence, but the current price is materially above base FV and the battery cycle still requires conservative valuation discipline.
- Quality: 76/100. The score is supported by five-year revenue, FCF, ROE/ROIC, and balance sheet; the constraints are cycle exposure, segment disclosure boundaries, and price safety.
- Price: current price is CNY383.01 and market value is about CNY1.772 trillion. Conservative/base FV is CNY179.89/CNY225.86 per share.
Business Breakdown
Power battery, energy storage, and related main-business revenue grew from CNY130.36 billion in 2021 to CNY423.70 billion in 2025, a 34.3% CAGR. Segment margin/profit was not disclosed in the structured source. Latest annual FCF was CNY90.88 billion.
Quality Gate
The score is 76/100. The report uses five-year revenue, FCF, ROE/ROIC, balance-sheet strength, and management/accounting checks. Five-year average FCF/Net Income was 0.85 and OCF/Net Income was 2.11. The latest net cash/debt was CNY212.22 billion, but cyclicality and capital intensity keep the signal at WATCHLIST.
Financial Audit
The valuation uses fiscal 2025-2021 in CNY. 2025 revenue/net profit/OCF/capex/FCF were CNY423.70/CNY72.20/CNY133.22/CNY42.34/CNY90.88 billion. The five-year FCF series was -CNY0.86, CNY12.99, CNY59.20, CNY65.81, and CNY90.88 billion. Latest cash was CNY333.51 billion and debt was CNY121.30 billion.
Valuation
CNY 10Y government yield was 1.7282% from ChinaBond on 2026-07-24.
| Scenario | Core Assumption | Multiple Basis | Fair Market Value | FV/Share | Price/FV | Weight | Next Check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | Normalized FCF CNY70.88bn with heavier haircut | g 1.0%, 9.0x | CNY832.31bn | CNY179.89 | 2.13 | 30% | Next revenue, FCF, capital allocation |
| Base | Normalized FCF CNY70.88bn continues | g 2.0%, 12.0x | CNY1.045tn | CNY225.86 | 1.70 | 50% | Next revenue, FCF, capital allocation |
| Optimistic | Quality rerating without exceeding cap | g 3.0%, 14.0x | CNY1.187tn | CNY256.50 | 1.49 | 20% | Next revenue, FCF, capital allocation |
Balance-sheet bridge is CNY194.36 billion after cash, current financial assets, non-current financial assets, and debt haircuts. Price/base FV of 1.70 fails the 2x gate by a wide margin.
Buy And Monitor
Current action is watch. Upgrade requires price/base FV below 0.70, quality score at least 75, and stronger mispricing evidence. Track revenue, FCF/Net Income, ROIC, net cash/debt, dividends, buybacks, governance, battery pricing, and capex discipline.
Risks
Risks are battery-cycle pricing, capital intensity, FCF repeatability, customer concentration, financial-asset haircuts, and shareholder-return discipline. Two periods below 0.60 FCF/Net Income, net-debt expansion, asset impairment, or dilutive capital allocation would reduce FV and signal.
Research only. Not personalized investment advice.
Sources
Market and five-year financial baseline came from public quote and financial platforms. Official disclosure venues are required for annual reports, dividends, buybacks, governance, related-party, incentive, and risk evidence. Risk-free rate: ChinaBond, 2026-07-24.