Mindray Medical Investment Quality Review (300760.SZ)
Data timestamp: 2026-07-24 22:04 UTC
Quality score: 78/100
Valuation position: current price/base fair value (FV) 1.11
Final signal: WATCHLIST
Core Conclusion
Mindray is a WATCHLIST name. The company has good medical-device quality evidence, but the current price is above base FV and does not provide enough margin of safety.
- Quality: 78/100. The score is supported by five-year revenue, FCF, ROE/ROIC, and a very strong net-cash balance sheet.
- Price: current price is CNY146.38 and market value is about CNY177.48 billion. Conservative/base FV is CNY109.21/CNY131.37 per share.
Business Breakdown
Medical-device main-business revenue was CNY25.27 billion in 2021, CNY30.37 billion in 2022, CNY34.93 billion in 2023, CNY36.73 billion in 2024, and CNY33.28 billion in 2025, a 7.1% CAGR. Latest annual FCF was CNY8.11 billion. Domestic procurement, overseas channel development, and product cadence should remain formal follow-up items.
Quality Gate
The score is 78/100: business model 8/10, moat 15/20, cash flow 16/20, capital return 13/15, balance sheet 9/10, growth quality 7/10, and management/accounting 12.0/15. FCF/Net Income averaged 0.93 and OCF/Net Income averaged 1.13. Five-year average ROE was 30.6% and ROIC was 28.6%.
Management/accounting is 80/100, converted to 12.0/15. The remaining deductions come from disclosure depth and capital allocation follow-up.
Financial Audit
The valuation uses fiscal 2025-2021 in CNY. 2025 revenue/net profit/OCF/capex/FCF were CNY33.28/CNY8.14/CNY10.14/CNY2.04/CNY8.11 billion. Latest cash was CNY17.69 billion and debt was CNY0.35 billion, leaving net cash of CNY17.34 billion.
Valuation
CNY 10Y government yield was 1.7282% from ChinaBond on 2026-07-24.
| Scenario | Core Assumption | Multiple Basis | Fair Market Value | FV/Share | Price/FV | Weight | Next Check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | Normalized FCF CNY8.95bn with heavier haircut | g 1.0%, 13.0x | CNY132.41bn | CNY109.21 | 1.34 | 30% | Next revenue, FCF, capital allocation |
| Base | Normalized FCF CNY8.95bn continues | g 2.0%, 16.0x | CNY159.27bn | CNY131.37 | 1.11 | 50% | Next revenue, FCF, capital allocation |
| Optimistic | Quality rerating without exceeding cap | g 3.0%, 18.0x | CNY177.18bn | CNY146.14 | 1.00 | 20% | Next revenue, FCF, capital allocation |
Balance-sheet bridge is CNY15.99 billion. Price/base FV of 1.11 fails the 2x gate.
Buy And Monitor
Current action is watch. Upgrade requires price/base FV below 0.70, quality score at least 75, and stronger mispricing evidence. Track revenue, FCF/Net Income, ROIC, net cash, dividends, buybacks, governance, procurement risk, overseas expansion, and new-product performance.
Risks
Risks include procurement pressure, slower overseas growth, FCF volatility, financial-asset haircuts, and governance/shareholder-return evidence. A sustained FCF/Net Income decline, material net-debt increase, asset impairment, or dilutive capital allocation would lower FV and signal.
Research only. Not personalized investment advice.
Sources
Public quote and financial platforms supplied market and five-year baseline data. Official disclosure venues are required for annual reports, governance, dividends, buybacks, related parties, incentives, and risk evidence. Risk-free rate: ChinaBond, 2026-07-24.