Shanxi Fenjiu Investment Quality Review (600809.SH)

Quality score: 79/100 Valuation position: current price/base FV 1.56 Final signal: WATCHLIST

Core Conclusion

Shanxi Fenjiu is WATCHLIST. The quality score is good, but current price of CNY127.24 is above base FV of CNY81.47. Conservative/base/optimistic FV is CNY73.91/CNY81.47/CNY107.29.

Business And Quality

Five-year revenue CAGR is 18.0%, and latest-year FCF is CNY7.82bn. The report recognizes strong growth and brand economics, but the 79/100 score reflects cash-conversion and evidence-depth constraints.

Financial Audit

The review uses fiscal 2021-2025 in CNY and a 1.7% CNY 10Y government-bond yield dated 2026-07-31. Five-year FCF/Net Income is 0.89 and OCF/Net Income is 0.96. Latest net cash is CNY9.57bn.

Valuation

Normalized FCF and balance-sheet cash support the FV range, but price/base FV of 1.56 fails the buy gate and does not offer enough downside protection.

Buy And Monitor

Current action is watchlist. Upgrade requires price/base FV below 0.70, quality score at least 75, and stronger evidence of durable demand, channel health, and cash conversion.

Risks

Risks include baijiu-cycle pressure, channel inventory, pricing power, margin compression, dividend coverage, and multiple contraction if growth normalizes.

Sources

Sources are public quote and financial data platforms, company filings or IR, ChinaBond for the CNY risk-free rate, and public FX data where applicable. Research only, not personalized investment advice.